The ruling party-commissioned public opinion survey, fielded in mid-January, shows likelihood of two-party Parliament if elections were held today with National Movement having big lead over billionaire opposition politician Bidzina Ivanishvili’s yet to be established party Georgian Dream.
The poll was commissioned by the ruling National Movement party to Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, the U.S.-based research and strategic consulting firm, which was first hired by the ruling party for the January, 2008 presidential elections.
Among all 1,200 surveyed voters nationwide, according to the poll released by the ruling party on its website, National Movement has 47% and the Georgian Dream - 19%; Christian-Democratic Movement (CDM) – 4%; 14% were undecided, according to the poll which has a margin of error of 2.8%.
The survey, fielded on January 11-16, estimates that only among those 56% of surveyed voters who are most likely to vote – defined as “likely voters” – the ruling party’s support grows to 58% and Ivanishvili’s planned party garners 18% (margin of error for “likely voters” is 3.8%).
A similar, ruling party-commissioned survey, fielded in November, showed the National Movement’s support among likely voters stood at 48% and the Georgian Dream – 29%.
The survey also examines by responses to other questions how 14% of undecided voters would likely vote; by allocating undecided likely voters, the survey gives ruling party 65% and the Georgian Dream - 25%; CDM still fails to clear 5% threshold required for endorsing candidates to the Parliament under the party-list, proportional contest.
According to the poll President Saakashvili's job approval is 79%.
On its website Greenberg Quinlan Rosner lists President Saakashvili; the ruling National Movement party and Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava among its clients. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner’s local contractor in Georgia is Tbilisi-based polling, market research and consulting firm ACT Research.
Gia Khukhashvili of Georgian Development Research Institute (GDRI), a newly created think-tank group, sponsored by Ivanishvili, told Civil.ge on Saturday that GDRI has not yet commissioned a new public opinion survey, but plans to do so in order to, as he put it “break monopoly” of the ruling party in respect of commissioning public opinion surveys. GDRI released its first and so far the only commissioned survey in November.